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2024-12-13 05:39:36

Far more than expected, the bull market is slower.This is beyond my expectation. Although I maintain the view that A shares are entering a bull market, my friends who have been watching it know that I am pessimistic.When the hesitant funds and investors exclaimed that the cow was coming, the big funds were lured to 3800, and then fell back to 3500 in January next year.


So in my last post, I emphasized that A shares would fluctuate between 3150 points and 200 points, and fell below 3150 points. But I should have thought that the bottom of the market was rising and the consolidation was going up. Finally, I paid the bill for my cognition: "I'm sorry"."Implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, enrich and improve the policy toolbox, and strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment."If you don't have stocks in your hand, don't worry in the morning, just wait for the new cycle to start, confirm the resonance theme, and get on the bus in various postures. In this emotional fragile stage, the most taboo is to follow the trend and go up to the top, regardless of whether it is up or down, we must maintain our own judgment, do not follow suit, make a good plan, and then implement it. Remember one thing, no market will end in a day or two.


In my opinion, in terms of capacity, today's science and technology innovation board is not as good as Beijing Jiao Tong 50, but in the long run, it may not be.It is worth mentioning that I have always admired this science and technology innovation board and compared it with Beijiao 50. Now Beijiao has been continuously adjusted, and now there is no first board. The continuous freezing point is bound to be accompanied by a strong rebound. If there is a new cycle, it is still the first choice for flexibility, and then science and technology innovation board.Secondly, the change from "prudent" to "moderately loose" in previous years is a major change in the caliber of monetary policy. Moderate easing was last proposed in 2010, and our caliber in the past 14 years has been consistent and steady. No matter how radical the interest rate cuts and RRR cuts are, no matter how loose they look from the behavior, they just don't let go. This is the first change in 14 years, with emphasis on the first time.

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